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Modelos financieros dinámicos que proyectan liquidez, endeudamiento y recapitalización bajo distintos escenarios. Con horizonte de corto plazo y periodicidad granular (habitualmente mensual), permiten anticipar tensiones y apoyar negociaciones con bancos y acreedores.
Un banco corporativo en Irlanda necesitaba preparar un plan de reestructuración como parte de una operación de recapitalización.
Se creó un modelo trimestral que simulaba diversos escenarios a lo largo de 10 años. Los drivers eran el crecimiento del volumen de activos, las transferencias de activos al banco malo, el margen por intereses, el número de empleados y la ponderación de riesgos. El modelo generaba la cuenta de resultados, el balance y los ratios para cada línea de negocio, así como a nivel de grupo.
El CFO pudo presentar un plan de reestructuración que sirvió de base para las discusiones con el regulador.
A Spanish industrial company wanted to raise financing to develop 130MW of greenfield wind plants in Spain.
A semi-annual model was built which included 3 plants projected separately, with market revenue down to EBIT and allowing for with sensitivities to price, production, opex and capex. The model then automatically optimized the debt sizing of both senior and mezzanine debts.
The company was able to measure returns for their investment under different debt sizes, durations and covenants and negotiate the debt raising exercise.
A Spanish group actively pursuing growth by acquisition wanted to present an offer for a 20MW PV portfolio located in Spain and Portugal.
Near identical models were built for each operating company, forecasting market and regulated revenue, opex and existing financing. Post deal refinancing options were also simulated, in order to optimize the structure.
Multiple scenarios were evaluated and an aggregated model with financial statements for all companies and for the group was then used to derive the bid value that would deliver the required shareholder return.
A Spanish fund needed to refinance the senior debt of a 10MW PV plant with a bank syndicate due to a regulatory change with strong negative impact on revenues.
A semi-annual model was built that forecast the regulated revenues under the novel and highly complex regime. Various refinancing scenarios were forecast including swap rate break clauses and repayment profiles optimized to match future cash flow generation.
The analysis for refinancing negotiations was made using a highly flexible debt dashboard to continuously refine the options available and choose the most suitable deal for the company.
A European industrial conglomerate wanted to build an arbitration case for losses incurred on a 750MW portfolio of wind, solar, biomass and hydro plants in Spain.
A highly complex model was developed to calculate multiple scenarios based on the impact of successive regulatory changes on each plant’s cash flows and valuation.
The company’s lawyers used the outputs of the model to back up the claim presented to the arbitration court.